October 6, 2009

week of 5oct09

Reading this week included John Hussman's review of the situation - unemployment, low overtime and temporary work, coming mortgage defaults with the reminder to deal with the present actual information, rather than some every-so-likely future scenario. "How utterly myopic investors can be when there's an uptrend to be played."

Also, to outperform overtime may include some smaller periodic losses - they aren't all going to be winners. This is included in the Jesse Livermore biography as well. Livermore did careful analysis of every situation. With a few notable exceptions that wiped him out, he limited his losses to 10% of his investment. Livermore describes some strategies for entry, profit-taking and exit - things that need further investigation.

First it was China wanting the dollar to be replaced by a new global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund. Though denying it, the Gulf States appear to be suggesting a similar move.

I'm reading some of the long list of blogs to determine who to follow as I look for insights, advice and new things to think about so there is a more manageable number.

Some questions that have come up...
  • When and how do foreclosures actually show up on banks' balance sheets?
  • Signs of intelligent life - is anyone worried about this? Who recognizes the potential dangers and when?
  • What is Paul Volker saying about all this?
  • overbought condition
Reality check - what's normal
Indicators
  • Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund HSTRX . . 12.22
  • NASDAQ Composite . . 2,073.01
  • US 10 Yr Bond(%) . . 3.2240%
  • Gold . . 1,016.20
Although I don't act on "tips" it is fun to record them and check back periodically
  • exploration and production company Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC, $59.73)

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